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Firms Navigate Difficult Conditions — Tech stocks have been battered this year, but we believe bright spots will emerge as U. Countries such as France, Portugal and Spain have it easier, as they were hardly dependent on Russian energy. The situation is different in Eastern and Central Europe, given their reliance on Russian gas, but countries are pivoting.
Further coordinated measures seem likely, including a price cap on natural gas. If implemented at the EU level, this measure would partially subsidize energy consumption, relieving some of the burden on consumers and companies. Also, we expect changes in the energy pricing system that decouple natural gas prices from other electricity sources, including liquified natural gas LNG , wind, solar, and nuclear.
Under this pricing model, producers of cheap electricity, such as renewables, sell their electricity at the highest price, which is often the gas price. This model is positive for renewable energy producers because it can result in high margins. The net profit margin for European renewable energy producers is The plan includes a rapid rollout of solar and wind energy projects combined with renewable hydrogen deployment.
Other large-scale projects include geothermal and nuclear fusion studies. Dubbed the Solaris project, European science ministers are set to evaluate its feasibility in November. Raw materials like nickel, cobalt, copper present opportunities for the long term.
In the short to medium term, uranium is core to renewed focus on nuclear energy. Chinese Equities: Rebound Can Materialize Amid Easing Policies China started on its path to easier monetary and fiscal policy due to the Omicron variant, which resulted in several long lockdowns this year. However, positive signs include industrial production and manufacturing production improved slightly in in September.
The government seems determined to boost growth and achieve three key targets: common prosperity, technological and manufacturing self-reliance, and liberalization of market access. These factors could weigh on investment sentiment for Chinese assets and cap near-term growth prospects. With accommodative monetary conditions and increasing tax refunds and tax cuts and deferrals, corporate loans rose to 1. From a market standpoint, Chinese stock valuations are compelling, in our view.
There might be some good to come from supply chain issues over the long term. Americans are for the first time in a long time questioning the wisdom and national security implications of buying and making nearly all our products overseas. Even if the pandemic mercifully ends, there will be no full-term recovery until supply chains smooth out and keep store shelves full. In the first half of , the U. That was an early indication that the re-opening dividend might have come and gone. A fourth-quarter recovery is expected, but imagine if settles in with low levels of GDP growth right as the Fed gets really scared about inflation.
This could be a perilous combination for stockholders. By November, U. The numbers present an incomplete picture of the real labor market, however. The U. So why is unemployment so low? Much of the gap can be chalked up to women forced out of the labor market while trying to navigate child care, plus their overrepresentation in industries hit hardest during the pandemic. The ferocious competition for workers has hurt companies with higher labor costs and staffing challenges.
These issues need to be worked out before the labor market can return to normal—and until then, it will remain another drag on many public companies. If you want a real sign that the stock market could be in for a slowdown in , look to the FAANG stocks. Last year, we predicted a rotation out of FAANG, because the tech giants had run so far so fast during We turned out to be only partially correct.
Microsoft and Google gained even more in our bad , while more modest gains at Facebook and Amazon actually underperformed the wider market. Could we suggest boring consumer staples with dividend-enhanced returns as a place to find comfort while inflation creates uncertainty?
Where Are the Chips? The ongoing computer chip shortage will continue to impact stocks—and not just tech stocks. Practically all consumer durable goods have a computer chip in them now, so the shortage is a bigger problem than laptops. Detroit parking lots are overflowing with almost-completed cars right now, just waiting for scarce computer chips that still need to be installed. Blame a terrible fire at a Chinese plant in late that complicated pandemic problems.
Intel says the chip shortage will last into That might be a good reason to consider buying chipmaking stocks—but it also might be a better reason to fret over the stability of most other consumer discretionary names. Midterm Elections Perhaps the biggest uncertainty of are the midterm Congressional elections.
Jan 11, · John Davi, CEO and CIO of Astoria Portfolio Advisors, closes out discussing the themes that Astoria sees for investing in These themes are: inflation, dividend income, . Buy Gold. Another smart investment strategy that is worth thinking about for and beyond is one that people have turned to time and time again in the past: buying gold. This is yet another . Oct 22, · Investment strategies highlighted this month: forecasts China’s economy to grow just % in 10 The strong U.S. dollar reducing global demand and the risk-off .