Overbetting river nash equilibrium poker

So there is no specific test for this, and the player has never played against humans. However there is one bot opponent which may give an idea of how the player ASHE would react to a changing strategy: the 'random gambler [RG]' that 'randomly switches from other highly exploitable strategies every 50 hands'. In one of the test the player is trained against all the highly exploitable strategies, and then plays vs RG. The authors observe: "[ That strategy, while being close to static after a few hundreds of hands, was much more effective in exploiting RG compared to SB's approximated equilibrium strategy.

This might be a very wrong intuition ; believing in NN magic. Also about exploitability: the player has a pure strategy deterministic w. Quote: [ Though I believe that the statistical approach could model the opponent accurately, I don't see it efficiently adapting to a changing strategy, or an opponent trying to exploit the player.

The way I see it, it would require to keep another set of stats with less memory e. Quote: I have read these papers and the whole dissertation on that subject a while ago and I am rather skeptical. I also asked the author some questions but never got a reply. I also don't think the results vs Slumbot are significant as there was a "defective" version of slumbot running at ACPC Thanks for the info.

I am currently also trying to reach him. This could be a red flag. Though I will still consider reproducing the work to verify its validity. It might just be a hidden gem. Quote: This agent has pretty unusual playing stats that make me believe that it would lose to all halfway solid Nash Agents That makes sense as the player is focused on exploiting and has no notion of Nash equilibria. Chip Dumping — The act of using online poker as a means to facilitate illegal money transfers.

Check this glossary entry for clues on how to spot chip dumping. This is a rather loose term as explained in the glossary entry. Cold Deck - An expression used to indicate that we are getting a bad run of cards. Colour Up - To trade chips with a low value for a smaller number of higher denomination chips to make the chip stack easier to handle. Combination — Refers to a specific combination of cards.

Combo Draw — Refers to a drawing hand with multiple draw components. Most often this will be a straight draw which is also a flush draw. Community Cards — Community cards are placed in the center of the table; all players may use them in constructing their 5-card hand. Not all poker variants use community cards. It can also refer to raising to the small bet sizing when playing the bring-in in Stud games.

Connector — Refers to a hand that contains cards of consecutive rank. Continuation Bet — Refers to betting on the current street after being the last aggressor on the previous street. Counterfeit — A situation where a previously strong hand loses a huge chunk of its value after further cards are dealt.

See this glossary entry for specific examples of counterfeiting. Crack — Carries the connotation of outdrawing a strong hand. Crossbook - A bet between two players in the same event. The player who busts out first owes his opponent a percentage of the winnings difference.

Cutoff CO — The position at the poker table to the direct right of the button. Provides a good opportunity for stealing the blinds. D Dark Bet — A bet made without waiting to see which additional cards are dealt on the current street. Dealer — The person who deals the cards; it might be a player or a casino employee. Check the glossary entry for the legend behind the hand name.

Dead Money - Unclaimed or extra chips in the pot that could potentially be won by the first player willing to take an aggressive action. Deuce — Common nickname for a card with a rank value of two. Find more about the origins of this term in the glossary entry. Dirty Stack - A chip stack that has not been correctly organized considered bad etiquette or even cheating in some cases. Denominations of chips should be grouped together in piles with the larger denominations at the front of the chip stack.

Check out this glossary entry for examples. The term can also be used to describe an exceptionally weak player at the table. Note that the term can be considered derogatory in this context. Door Card — A door card in Stud is the first upcard dealt to a player. Although it belongs exclusively to the player, it is visible to the entire table. Double Up — To double the size of our chip stack after winning an all in. They belong exclusively to the player and are not visible to the rest of the table.

Downswing — Refers to a prolonged period of losses. Draw — Refers to a situation where are waiting on cards to complete our hand. The term Draw also refers to a selection of poker variants where competitors replace cards in their hand with cards from the deck on each betting round. Drawing Dead — A situation where none of our outs will give us the best hand. Dry — Refers to a board texture where there are very few if any possible draws.

Check this glossary entry for more information. E Early Position - Refers to the first two or three seats on a full ring poker table. It refers exclusively to the lojack on a 6-handed table. Effective Stacks — Refers to the smaller of two stacks in play. See the glossary entry for examples. See the glossary entry for a more detailed breakdown of this concept.

Equity calculators often also have additional features which are outlined in this glossary entry. This can be calculated using expected value calculations which are explained in this glossary entry. Family Pot — Refers to a pot where most of the players do not fold on the initial betting round. Fastplay — To come out betting and raising when holding a strong made hand.

Favourite — Indicates that a certain hand or player is statistically likely to win. Fifth Street - A stud game term used to describe the third betting round the street on which every remaining player is dealt a fifth card. Fish — A common term used to describe a weak player at the table. Sometimes considered derogatory so discretion is advised. Five-Bet — The fifth bet in a betting sequence.

Check out this glossary entry for an example. See the entry for usage examples. Float — A call made with a speculative holding, having the intention of bluffing on a later street. Flush — A hand made with five cards of the same suit. Four-Bet — The fourth bet in a betting sequence. See this glossary entry for an example. Fourth Street - The second betting round in Stud.

It's called 'fourth' because players have been dealt four cards at this stage. Free Card — A card seen without having to invest additional chips. Whether this is a good or bad thing depends on the scenario as explained in this glossary entry. Freeroll — A tournament with no buy-in required. Also refers to a situation where a hand can either chop or win but can rarely or never lose. The freeroll concept will be more easily understood after seeing the examples provided in this glossary entry.

Full Boat - Poker nickname for a full house - a hand consisting of three cards of one rank and two of another. Full House — A five card hand made with a combination of three of a kind and one pair. G Gap — Refers to a gap between cards of consecutive rank. Examples are given in this glossary entry.

Grinding — Refers to playing poker for long hours and slowly building up profit. For example, we hold 5,6,8,9 and need to hit a 7 in order to complete our straight. Gutshot Straight Draw — A type of straight draw where we are waiting on a card on the inside of our structure to complete the straight.

H Hanger — A term used to describe a protruding bottom card when base dealing. Check this entry for information on how to spot illegal base dealing in your own games. Hand for Hand - A stage in poker tournaments where every table must finish their current hand before the tournament moves on to the next hand.

Hand Rankings — Check out this glossary entry for a full breakdown of the different types of hand that can be made in poker. Does a straight beat a flush? Find out here! Heads Up — Refers to a poker hand where only two players are involved. This could refer to either the initial deal, or the later betting rounds after every other player folds.

Hero Call — A call made with a speculative hand in the hopes that our opponent is bluffing. Is hero calling ever a good idea? Find out in this glossary entry. Hero Fold - When a poker player folds a very strong hand which would ordinarily call because he has a strong feeling that he is beat.

The strength of our hand is defined by its highest card Aces are high in most variants. Casino gamblers are often referred to as high rollers also. Hijack — A position at the poker table. Check the glossary entry for strategy advice. Last Longer — A bet made between two players in a tournament setting. The player who busts out first loses the bet. Hit and Run - Describes a situation where a player wins big shortly after joining a cash game then leaves immediately afterwards. Learn the rules of this popular variant in this glossary entry.

Hole Cards — Refers to cards that are dealt face down to the player and kept secret. House - The establishment that runs the game itself. It could be a brick and mortar casino or an online poker room. Hyper Turbo - A type of poker tournament or sit and go with an extremely fast blind structure and shallow starting stacks.

Learn how it works in this detailed glossary entry. Implied Odds — A pot odds calculation factoring in the additional chips we stand to win on later streets if we make our hand. Insurance — A side wager made with another player at the table. ITM - ITM in poker stands for 'in the money' and refers to players in line for a cash prize since they have successfully passed the bubble. See this glossary entry for more information on how it usually works.

Jam — Colloquial term meaning to shove all-in. Joker - Extra card added to a deck of cards generally with a picture of a court jester. Jokers are sometimes used as wild cards in poker. In scenarios where two players have the same hand, the best kickers will win. Last Longer - A side bet wagered between tournament participants to see who lasts longer. The last player to bust out of the tournament wins the bet. Laydown — To make a fold. Sometimes implies reluctance to ditch the hand.

Levelling — Refers to thinking on different levels when playing a hand of poker. Leverage — Refers to chips that have an influence on correct strategy despite the fact that they are not currently in play. Limit — Generally used to describe a game with a fixed-limit betting structure.

All bets and raises occur in fixed increments. Limit Poker - A betting structure in poker variants where players must bet or raise in pre-decided fixed increments. Limp — Describes the action of just calling when there is no raise before us on the first betting round. Check out this glossary entry to discover whether limping is ever correct in poker. Check out this glossary entry for a guide on how different low hand rankings work across several poker variants. Mark - In a poker context refers to the weak player at the table.

Strong players will increase their profits by targeting the mark. Mechanic - Someone who has learnt sleight of hand techniques for manipulating a card deck and can potentially cheat while dealing. This glossary entry provides a guide for developing a stronger mental game. Middle Position — Middle position in poker refers to the hijack, lojack and mp1 on a full ring poker table. It refers exclusively to the hijack on a 6-handed table.

Mid Stakes - Poker games with a larger buy-in than 'low stakes' but a smaller buy-in than 'high stakes'. Misclick — To accidentally perform the wrong action when playing in an online setting. Chiefly used to describe clicking in the wrong location or accidentally clicking with a mouse. Monotone — Describes a board texture or hand structure in some cases where all cards are of the same suit.

Monster — Colloquial term for a very strong poker hand. Muck — To return a losing hand to the dealer at showdown without showing it to the table. Mucking is usually allowed when we are the caller on the final street, but not if we took the last aggressive action before showdown. Must Move - An overflow game created when the main table in a casino is full.

Players must move to the main table when a seat is free. N Nash Equilibrium - A game theory concept. A Nash equilibrium is reached when all players are perfectly balanced and cannot improve their winrate by deviating from their current strategy. Nit — Describes an extremely risk averse player who hardly plays any of his starting hands. A nit simply hopes to wait for premium holdings and get a big payout.

Nosebleed — A term used to designate ultra high stakes cash game action, typically 5knl and above. It describes the best possible low hand in a lowball or split pot variant of poker. Nut Flush Draw — A draw to the Ace high flush.

This will also typically be the stone cold nuts if it hits. Nut Flush — The Ace high flush. Nuts — The best possible hand. The nuts can never lose, it can only chop. O Offsuit — Typically used to describe a starting hand where there is no co-ordination between the suits. Suited hands are nearly always better than offsuit hands.

Omaha — A popular poker variant utilizing community cards. Each player is dealt four hole-cards on the preflop betting round. Check out this glossary entry for a full description of the rules. One-Gap — A term used to describe two cards which are not in direct consecutive order but instead contain a gap of one. Open-ended Straight Draw — A straight draw where a player is waiting for one of two cards on the outside of his structure.

For example, we hold and make a straight if we pick up any 9 or 4. Open-raise — To make the first raise on the first betting round. Check this glossary entry for more information on the term. OMC - Old man coffee. Out — A card that will likely give us the best hand if it falls. Learn how to count outs in this glossary entry. Overbet — To make a bet sizing larger than the current size of the pot. Learn when overbetting might be a good idea in this glossary entry. Overcall — To make a call when another player has already made a call before us on the current street.

Overcard — A card which is either higher than the board or higher than our current holding. The King is an overcard to our pair. Overlay — Additional money injected by the poker room into a tournament prize pool. Overlimp - An overlimp is a limp on the first betting round after another player has already limped. A limp is where we just call when first to act on the firs betting round.

P Pair — We make a pair when we hold two cards of identical rank. Play the Board — Can refer to a situation where we formulate our hand entirely using community cards. Can also refer to a scenario where we make plays without a legitimate hand based purely on the board texture in community card games or the appearance of our upcards in Stud games. Paint — A term used to designate any cards between and including Jack and Ace. This is the best possible starting hand. Pocket Pair — Refers to a starting hand where we have a pair in the hole.

Position — Can refer to the specific position at the table we are occupying. This important concept is dissected in this glossary entry. Pot — The place in the center of the poker table where wagered chips are placed. The winner of the hand wins all the chips in the pot. Pot Committed — The idea that a player has invested enough of his chip stack that folding at any point would now be a mistake. Pot odds — The amount we need to call when facing a bet relative to what is already in the pot.

Typically expressed either as a ratio or a percentage. Pot Limit — A betting structure where the maximum allowed bet or raise is a pot sized bet. For example, Omaha is commonly played with a pot limit betting structure. A statistic which indicates how frequently a player is raising preflop when given the opportunity. Price — How much something costs, such as the amount we need to call when facing a bet.

Often used interchangeably with other terms such as pot odds. Probe — Traditionally a small bet designed to gather information. Prop Player - A poker player who is given an hourly wage by a casino to play poker at their tables. Prop players gamble with their own money.

Polarised - A type of range construction where hands are divided into two categories, value hands and bluffs. Pot - The pile of chips in the middle of the table that players are competing for. Despite being an unofficial name, it is currently the most popular way of referencing this type of hand.

In most variants this means holding 5 cards 8 or lower. Check out this entry for more information on qualification rules. R Rabbit Hunt — Seeing the remaining community cards after folding. This has no impact on the game but allows players to see if they would have hit their hand or not.

Ragged — Often used to describe a non-coordinated board texture. Rainbow — Used to describe a board texture or sometimes starting hand where every card is of a different suit. Rake — A small amount taken from the pot each hand as payment for running the poker game. Rakeback — A percentage of rake paid which is given back to the players as a reward. It sometimes comes in the form of a VIP system. This important concept is discussed in this glossary entry.

Range Advantage — This term is used when one player has a better range than his opponent. There are different variables that contributed to range advantage; they are discussed in this glossary entry. Jack, Four, Ace etc etc. Ratholing — Describes the action of leaving a ring game and then rebuying in for a smaller amount of chips. In this glossary entry, learn why ratholing is considered unethical. Razz — The lowball version of seven card Stud. Check out this glossary entry for a description of the rules.

It indicates that we have a good vision over the type of holdings our opponent is likely to show up with. Rebuy — To purchase additional chips. Predominantly applies to cash games although rebuy tournaments do exist. Redraw — A possible draw has completed on the board texture but we are drawing to an even bigger hand.

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River equilibrium poker nash overbetting sbr forum nba betting line

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Although it is possible to over-bet any street, this play usually only happens on the river and that will be the focus on this article. Over-betting the river in poker for value When electing to over-bet for value it is crucial to understand how your opponent will perceive this action.

Over-betting for value can be a great play against the ego-oriented players that fight for every single pot, but not so much against the players that are showdown oriented and obsessed with pot control. The players that try to win every pot are usually highly suspicious of any play that they are not used to facing. These aggressive-suspicious players will be prone to making hero-calls in these types of situations.

They will try to find any possible reason to call you down, as they are generally afraid of getting bluffed. The reasons that an over-bet is so valuable in this situation is due to the opponents hand range and his likelihood of being able to make a big laydown. After flatting the flop and the turn his hand range will be heavily weighted towards top pair, and it will be extremely difficult for him to have anything that beats AK. This type of opponent will typically never be looking to fold a hand as strong as top pair on this board, no matter what bet size you choose.

In many cases, an over-bet can actually serve to increase his calling frequency. He could have a hand like 99 that was planning to fold the river, but when faced with an over-bet his suspicious tendencies could make him lean towards a hero-call. This play is especially effective when playing from late position. If you happened to open in early position then even the more suspicious players will tend to give you credit and fold some of his marginal holdings.

If you know that he would have 3bet AK preflop then KQ becomes almost equally as valuable, the only difference is the chance of a split pot. Once you have shown the capability to over-bet for value with a hand as wide as top pair, good kicker then it is extremely important to stay one step ahead of your opponent. He will likely make a note that you over-bet a wide value range, thus making your range less polarized and more valuable.

Once you can establish this dynamic it will be very easy to pull off some sick bluffs that will screw your opponents head straight into the ground! Over-betting the river as a bluff The most effective way to pull off an over-bet bluff is when it is against a player who has already seen you show down a value hand in this situation, especially if it was thinner value. If you can showdown a hand as wide as top pair that you successfully over-bet for value then it becomes extremely difficult for your opponent to call down the next few over-bets.

Opponents will be highly likely to make the adjustment of folding to your over-bets in the future, unless they are borderline suicidal. Once this dynamic has been established then you can over-bet any board texture that is difficult for the opponent to have something better than top pair. It is now possible to increase the frequency of your double-barrel bluffs, especially on dry board textures. In fact, once you have the proper credibility then all of your bluffs on the river should be larger than the size of the pot.

This places an immense amount of pressure on your opponents and drastically increases the likelihood that they will fold. Even if they happen to wake up with a hand that merits a call then you can easily go back to over-betting exclusively for value and usually make up for the extra amount that was lost.

Against players that are obsessed with pot-control and getting to showdown, over-betting should almost be exclusively used as a bluff. These players will be prone to fold all of their marginal hands in this situation and not think twice about it. Therefor this play should only be used as a bluff until you get caught.

While this strategy guarantees that the player implementing the GTO strategy will never lose money in the long run, it is not always the most profitable strategy. Due to the complexity of a perfectly GTO strategy, players rarely play anywhere near a GTO strategy and therefore have an exploitability that is greater than zero. This leads better poker players to stray away from their most GTO strategy in order to maximize their profit against an imperfect opponent.

To better understand how a player might implement an exploitative strategy, it is easiest to examine the simplest part of the HUNLHE game tree. The simplest part of the game tree is when there are the least number of future actions, which in HUNLHE is the final round of betting known as the river.

If a good poker player knows that his opponent only bets on the river when he has a strong hand, his exploitative strategy would be to fold all of his hands except for his very strong hands. While this strategy of folding all but very strong hands would not be GTO, it would be far more profitable than if he decided to call with his moderately good hands.

This leads us to the concept of balance. As seen in the example above, it would be far less exploitable if a strategy bets not only when it holds a strong hand but also with some of its weaker holdings as well. A strategy that implements this is considered balanced and is a major distinction between advanced and beginning players.